Gold closed the European session with a notable correction, trading at $4813.30 USD/oz (-1.36%), despite the escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf. The interception of a vessel by the U.S. and attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, reported in the last 24 hours, have increased geopolitical risk. However, the initial reaction from the precious metals market has been one of profit-taking, especially in gold and silver, which had previously shown strength.
Gold — Analysis with Data, Levels, Drivers
Gold (XAU) has retreated from its recent highs, settling at $4813.30 USD/oz. While geopolitical tension in the Strait of Hormuz, vital for 21% of global crude supply, should be a bullish catalyst for safe-haven assets, data from recent hours suggests widespread profit-taking. The weakness of the U.S. dollar, measured by the DXY, which has remained relatively stable, has not been enough to counter this selling pressure. Technical levels to watch are immediate support at $4780 and key resistance at $4850. Volatility in oil prices, driven by these events, could generate capital flows into gold in the coming sessions if the situation escalates.
Silver — Analysis, Correlations
Silver (XAG) has followed a similar trend to gold, falling to $80.31 USD/oz (-1.87%). The correlation between the two precious metals remains strong, and profit-taking in gold has transferred to silver. Although industrial demand for renewable energy projects, such as those announced by BYD with 40 GW of new solar installations by 2026, continues to be a long-term support factor for silver, general market sentiment appears to be dominated by caution. The gold/silver ratio remains at elevated levels, traditionally suggesting lower risk appetite, but the recent correction could indicate a reevaluation of positions.
Platinum (XPT) and palladium (XPD) have shown notable stability, trading unchanged at $2141.70 USD/oz and $1600.80 USD/oz, respectively. The absence of specific news and the lack of clear impetus from the geopolitical situation or industrial demand keep them in a sideways range. Palladium, in particular, remains under pressure due to the increasing adoption of electric vehicles and reduced reliance on internal combustion engine catalysts.
Macro and Geopolitical Context — How Today's Events Affect Markets
The escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are undoubtedly the most significant geopolitical event of the last 24 hours. The possibility of an oil supply disruption and consequent volatility in energy markets are factors that traditionally favor safe-haven assets. However, the market's mixed reaction suggests investors are weighing multiple factors, including the possibility of a diplomatic resolution or containment of the conflict. News regarding the stability of inflation expectations in Japan and the Bank of Indonesia's decision to maintain interest rates at 4.75% until 2026, partly due to inflationary risks stemming from the war in Iran, adds complexity to the macroeconomic landscape. The strength of U.S. stocks, which have reached historic highs, could also be attracting capital away from precious metals.
What to Watch — Specific Events in the Next 24-48h with Dates
* **Next 24 hours:** Any new information regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will be crucial. The release of key economic data in the U.S. and Europe could influence market sentiment and interest rate direction. Flows into Gold ETFs and Silver will be an important indicator of institutional sentiment.
* **Next 48 hours:** Discussions on the stability of stablecoins are expected to continue, with the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) highlighting the importance of global cooperation. The evolution of the U.S. corporate earnings season will also be a factor to observe for the direction of stock markets and, consequently, flows into other assets.
Sources
Japan households’ inflation expectations steady, BOJ April hike bets fade