Gold and Silver Fall: Middle East War and Strong Dollar Mark the Week

Weekly Executive Summary

The week of March 15-22, 2026, has been marked by growing geopolitical tension in the Middle East, with the escalation of the conflict between Iran and allied forces, which has boosted oil prices and generated uncertainty in financial markets. This situation, combined with an apparent strength in the US dollar, has exerted downward pressure on gold and silver, despite their status as safe-haven assets. Platinum has shown remarkable resilience, while palladium and copper have followed the downward trend of industrial metals.

Metal Analysis

**Gold (XAU):** Gold closed the week with a slight drop of -0.67%, trading at $4574.90 USD/oz. Despite geopolitical tensions that traditionally benefit gold, the persistence of the conflict in the Middle East and threats to energy facilities, along with a strong US currency, have limited its upside potential. Support levels are around $4500 USD/oz, while key resistance remains at $4600 USD/oz.

**Silver (XAG):** Silver experienced a more pronounced drop, with a pullback of -2.18% to settle at $69.66 USD/oz. Silver, more sensitive to industrial activity and dollar fluctuations, has suffered more than gold. Industrial demand, although growing, has not been sufficient to counteract the downward pressure. Important supports are found at $68 USD/oz, with resistances at $70 USD/oz.

**Platinum (XPT):** Platinum has been the positive exception, registering an increase of +1.38% to $1970.50 USD/oz. This performance is attributed to strong demand in the automotive sector, particularly in catalytic converters, and to strategic accumulation by some market players in anticipation of perceived scarcity in the mining and production cycle. Key support is located at $1950 USD/oz, and resistance at $2000 USD/oz.

**Palladium (XPD):** Palladium continued its downward trend with a drop of -0.69%, trading at $1445.20 USD/oz. Weakness in automotive demand, coupled with competition from other metals and general economic uncertainty, continues to weigh on palladium.

**Copper (HG):** Copper, the primary industrial metal, retreated by -1.74% to $5.37 USD/oz. Concerns about global economic growth, exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on energy costs, have negatively affected copper.

Geopolitical Context

The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has been the dominant geopolitical factor. Threats of attacks on energy facilities between Iran and allied forces, including the reported incident of Iranian missiles targeting a British-American base in the Indian Ocean that failed to reach their objective, have increased the risk of energy supply disruptions. This, in turn, has boosted oil prices and created an environment of risk aversion in the markets. Israel's actions ordering the destruction of bridges and homes near the Lebanese border add another layer of complexity to the regional situation. The war in Iran has the potential to derail the artificial intelligence boom, given the chip supply chain's dependence on energy and chemicals imported from the Middle East. On the other hand, China has reaffirmed its commitment to continue opening its economy despite trade tensions with the United States, reporting a record trade surplus in 2025, which could moderate some global inflationary pressures.

Macroeconomic Context

Financial markets have been attentive to macroeconomic data and signals from major central banks. While there were no major monetary policy announcements this week, the sustained strength of the US dollar has been a key factor. A strong dollar tends to put downward pressure on commodity prices denominated in this currency, such as gold and silver. Inflation concerns, although receding in some economies, remain present, keeping central banks in a state of caution. Bond yields, while volatile, have not shown a clear trend that significantly favors precious metals as safe-haven assets.

Outlook for Next Week

Next week, attention will remain focused on the evolution of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Any new escalation or de-escalation in the conflict will have a direct impact on oil prices and, by extension, on industrial metals and overall market sentiment. Investors will be vigilant for potential inflation data and statements from central bank officials that could offer clues about the future direction of interest rates. The spot price of gold and silver could be influenced by these factors, as well as by the behavior of the dollar. Demand for jewelry as an investment, especially colored gemstones, from wealthy consumers, as reported, could offer marginal support to certain precious metals. The support and resistance levels mentioned for each metal will continue to be key reference points to observe.

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